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1. WHAT ARE TRENDS?
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Trends indicate the general direction of any value movements such as the movements which occur to the values of the SuburbWatch Index, Property Sales Volumes and Yields. |
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Trends move in 3 directions being either: |
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Up |
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Down |
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Flat (i.e. flat means hardly moving up or down) |
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Trends vary in length but for the purposes of SuburbWatch are either: |
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Short term (i.e. 2 periods) |
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Medium term (i.e. 4 periods) |
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2. WHY ARE TRENDS IMPORTANT?
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Trends tend to be 'sticky' so it pays to back trends rather than attempt to 'buck' them. |
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('Sticky' means for example if a trend is downward then it is more likely to remain generally in a downward direction until the trend has turned into an upward trend and vice versa.) |
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3. HOW TO INTERPRET THE SUBURBWATCH 'DATASET' TRENDS?
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SuburbWatch offers 3 main 'Datasets' of information being the SuburbWatch Index, Sales Volumes and Yields. Below are some notes on how we suggest you interpret the trends for each of these 3 Datasets. |
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Dataset 1. SUBURBWATCH INDEX |
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If the SuburbWatch Index for a suburb is: |
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Trending DOWN, then it generally pays to wait until the trend changes to an UPWARD direction before buying in that suburb. |
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Trending UP, then it generally pays to wait until the trend changes to a DOWNWARD direction before selling in that suburb. |
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N.B. We use the word generally because these principals are not always absolutely correct. For example sometimes trends will be volatile in the short term, so the principle of trends remaining in the same direction does not always absolutely apply. |
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Dataset 2. PROPERTY SALES VOLUMES |
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If the Sales Volumes for a suburb are: |
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Trending DOWN, then this indicates a 'softening' in demand generally for property/ies in the suburb. |
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Trending UP, then this indicates a 'strengthening' in demand generally for property/ies in the suburb. |
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N.B. Sometimes sales volume trends will be volatile in the short term, so a change in the trend may not always absolutely indicate that a softening or strengthening will apply. For example if sales volumes are trending down, this may not indicate a softening in demand, but may in fact be attributable to a lack of supply (i.e. perhaps there are very few properties for sale at the time). |
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Dataset 3. YIELDS |
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If Yields in a suburb are: |
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Trending DOWN then it indicates that the downward trend will continue before it changes to an UPWARD direction. |
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Trending UP then it indicates that the upward trend will continue before it changes to a DOWNWARD direction. |
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This tutorial analysis should be read in light of the other edutorials also available for you uniquely at www.SuburbWatch.co.nz |
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